Canada Employment Preview: Employment Expected to Rise 20,000 in September

Employment is expected to rise 20,000 in September after the 22,200 gain in August. Action Economics said it expects annual average weekly earnings growth to expand at a 1.8% year-on-year pace in September, matching the pace in August but up from the 1.3% growth rates in May, June and July.

While that would again be above the multi-year low 0.7% pace in April, it would still leave a historically tame pace for compensation growth.

Action Economics saw the monthly gain in total employment improve in August after a subdued gain in July and back to back strong gains in May and June. But the August gain was hobbled by 88,100 drop in full time jobs. Hence, the best news on the job market may be over, suggesting downside risk to AE’s estimate. Indeed, a less aggressive gross domestic product growth pace is evolving in the second half of this year, which could leave a less strident pace of job creation.

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